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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Lorient

T T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Caen

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 27%

23%

30%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

43%

Both score Ø 45%

53%

37%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lorient 20. · Caen 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	30	22	5	3	+61	71
2	Paris SG	30	21	5	4	+39	68
3	Nice	30	18	10	2	+24	64
4	Lyon	30	16	3	11	+26	51
5	Marseille	31	13	8	10	+6	47
6	Bordeaux	30	12	10	8	+5	46
7	St Etienne	30	11	11	8	+10	44
8	Guingamp	31	11	8	12	-1	41
9	Rennes	31	9	13	9	-5	40
10	Angers	30	11	6	13	-7	39
11	Nantes	30	10	8	12	-16	38
12	Toulouse	30	9	10	11	-1	37
13	Lille	31	10	7	14	-7	37
14	Metz	29	9	8	12	-24	35
15	Montpellier	30	8	9	13	-11	33
16	Caen	30	9	5	16	-20	32
17	Dijon	31	6	11	14	-9	29
18	Nancy	31	7	7	17	-20	28
19	Bastia	31	5	10	16	-21	25
20	Lorient	30	7	4	19	-29	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
2	Nice	15	11	4	0	+20	37
3	Paris SG	15	10	5	0	+24	35
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Lyon	15	11	0	4	+23	33
6	Guingamp	15	9	3	3	+11	30
7	Rennes	16	8	6	2	+9	30
8	Toulouse	15	8	3	4	+11	27
9	St Etienne	15	7	6	2	+11	27
10	Montpellier	15	7	5	3	+10	26
11	Angers	15	7	5	3	+8	26
12	Bordeaux	16	7	5	4	+3	26
13	Metz	14	6	5	3	-4	23
14	Caen	15	7	2	6	-7	23
15	Dijon	15	5	5	5	+4	20
16	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-9	19
17	Bastia	16	3	9	4	+0	18
18	Lille	15	5	3	7	-3	18
19	Nancy	15	5	2	8	-4	17
20	Lorient	15	5	2	8	-9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	0	4	+15	33
2	Monaco	15	9	4	2	+20	31
3	Nice	15	7	6	2	+4	27
4	Bordeaux	14	5	5	4	+2	20
5	Lille	16	5	4	7	-4	19
6	Nantes	15	5	4	6	-7	19
7	Lyon	15	5	3	7	+3	18
8	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-1	17
9	Marseille	15	3	4	8	-8	13
10	Angers	15	4	1	10	-15	13
11	Metz	15	3	3	9	-20	12
12	Guingamp	16	2	5	9	-12	11
13	Nancy	16	2	5	9	-16	11
14	Toulouse	15	1	7	7	-12	10
15	Rennes	15	1	7	7	-14	10
16	Dijon	16	1	6	9	-13	9
17	Caen	15	2	3	10	-13	9
18	Lorient	15	2	2	11	-20	8
19	Montpellier	15	1	4	10	-21	7
20	Bastia	15	2	1	12	-21	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.