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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Bastia
S U T S T
2–0
Full-time
Lorient
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Lorient
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
0,5
1,8
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 24%
19%
28%
Points per game
0,9
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
42%
61%
Both score Ø 49%
44%
53%
Average goals
2,2
3,1
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%
11 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 9
1 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bastia 20. · Lorient 17. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Monaco 35 27 5 3 +69 86
2 Paris SG 36 26 5 5 +51 83
3 Nice 36 22 11 3 +29 77
4 Lyon 36 19 4 13 +27 61
5 Marseille 36 16 10 10 +15 58
6 Bordeaux 36 15 12 9 +10 57
7 St Etienne 35 12 14 9 +8 50
8 Nantes 36 13 9 14 -14 48
9 Guingamp 36 13 8 15 -5 47
10 Rennes 36 11 14 11 -6 47
11 Lille 36 12 7 17 -6 43
12 Toulouse 36 10 12 14 -4 42
13 Metz 36 11 9 16 -32 42
14 Angers 36 11 7 18 -13 40
15 Montpellier 36 10 9 17 -14 39
16 Caen 36 10 6 20 -28 36
17 Lorient 36 10 5 21 -24 35
18 Dijon 36 7 12 17 -14 33
19 Nancy 36 8 8 20 -23 32
20 Bastia 36 7 11 18 -26 32

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

20. Aug -16 Lorient – Bastia 0–3 5. Mar -16 Bastia – Lorient 0–0 16. Aug -15 Lorient – Bastia 1–1

Match report

Bastia Lorient
Enzo Crivelli 🟨
3′
Lenny Nangis 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
G. Danic 🔁
↦ A. Ngando
46′
53′
🟨 Arnold Mvuemba
A. Saint-Maximin 🔁
↦ L. Nangis
62′
63′
🔁 R. Philippoteaux
↦ J. Aliadière
69′
🔁 B. Jeannot
↦ W. Mesloub
1–0 E. Crivelli ⚽
G. Danic
74′
77′
🔁 F. Bellugou
↦ A. Wakaso
79′
🟨 Majeed Waris
Lassana Coulibaly 🟨
82′
2–0 G. Danic ⚽
86′
F. Raspentino 🔁
↦ E. Crivelli
92′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Bastia

4-4-2
16 J. Leca G
20 P. Bengtsson D
4 A. El Kaoutari D
23 A. Djiku D
18 Y. Cahuzac M
14 M. Mostefa M
11 L. Nangis M
19 A. Ngando M
12 A. Keita D
25 L. Coulibaly M
27 E. Crivelli F
Bench (7)
8 G. Danic
10 A. Saint-Maximin
9 F. Raspentino
1 T. Vincensini
3 N. Saint-Ruf
15 P. Oniangué
29 G. Cioni

Coach: Rui Almeida

Lorient

4-2-3-1
40 B. Lecomte G
13 M. Ciani D
25 V. Le Goff D
15 M. Peybernes D
20 S. Moreira D
7 A. Mvuemba M
17 W. Mesloub M
23 A. Wakaso M
27 J. Cabot M
14 J. Aliadière F
9 A. Waris F
Bench (7)
19 R. Philippoteaux
22 B. Jeannot
6 F. Bellugou
5 Z. Touré
8 Cafú
16 P. Delecroix
34 E. Koffi

Coach: B. Casoni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Ruddy Buquet · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.