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Ligue 1

Referee: Stephane Lannoy

Metz

U T T S S

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 30%

31%

28%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

61%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

39%

44%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 13

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 13. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	35	27	5	3	+69	86
2	Paris SG	36	26	5	5	+51	83
3	Nice	36	22	11	3	+29	77
4	Lyon	36	19	4	13	+27	61
5	Marseille	36	16	10	10	+15	58
6	Bordeaux	36	15	12	9	+10	57
7	St Etienne	35	12	14	9	+8	50
8	Nantes	36	13	9	14	-14	48
9	Guingamp	36	13	8	15	-5	47
10	Rennes	36	11	14	11	-6	47
11	Lille	36	12	7	17	-6	43
12	Toulouse	36	10	12	14	-4	42
13	Metz	36	11	9	16	-32	42
14	Angers	36	11	7	18	-13	40
15	Montpellier	36	10	9	17	-14	39
16	Caen	36	10	6	20	-28	36
17	Lorient	36	10	5	21	-24	35
18	Dijon	36	7	12	17	-14	33
19	Nancy	36	8	8	20	-23	32
20	Bastia	36	7	11	18	-26	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	15	1	1	+44	46
2	Nice	18	14	4	0	+25	46
3	Paris SG	18	13	5	0	+35	44
4	Marseille	18	12	4	2	+19	40
5	Lyon	18	12	0	6	+20	36
6	Guingamp	18	11	3	4	+14	36
7	Rennes	18	10	6	2	+12	36
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	St Etienne	18	7	9	2	+11	30
10	Toulouse	18	8	5	5	+10	29
11	Montpellier	18	8	5	5	+8	29
12	Metz	18	7	6	5	-7	27
13	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
14	Nantes	18	7	4	7	-8	25
15	Dijon	18	6	6	6	+4	24
16	Lorient	18	7	3	8	-4	24
17	Caen	18	7	2	9	-15	23
18	Bastia	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Lille	18	6	3	9	-3	21
20	Nancy	18	6	3	9	-4	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	18	12	4	2	+25	40
2	Paris SG	18	13	0	5	+16	39
3	Nice	18	8	7	3	+4	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	18	6	7	5	+2	25
6	Nantes	18	6	5	7	-6	23
7	Lille	18	6	4	8	-3	22
8	St Etienne	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Marseille	18	4	6	8	-4	18
10	Metz	18	4	3	11	-25	15
11	Angers	18	4	2	12	-17	14
12	Caen	18	3	4	11	-13	13
13	Toulouse	18	2	7	9	-14	13
14	Rennes	18	1	8	9	-18	11
15	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
16	Nancy	18	2	5	11	-19	11
17	Lorient	18	3	2	13	-20	11
18	Montpellier	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Bastia	18	3	1	14	-27	10
20	Dijon	18	1	6	11	-18	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.