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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Zwolle

U S S U

3–0

Full-time

Excelsior

T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zwolle Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Zwolle 6. · Excelsior 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+12	13
2	Roda	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Feyenoord	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	PSV Eindhoven	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Zwolle	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Heerenveen	4	1	3	0	+2	6
10	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Den Haag	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Twente	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-10	1
18	De Graafschap	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roda	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Vitesse	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Heracles	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Heerenveen	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Excelsior	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Den Haag	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Twente	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	De Graafschap	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-2	4
5	Heracles	2	1	0	1	+3	3
6	Feyenoord	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Den Haag	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Roda	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Vitesse	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Twente	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	De Graafschap	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.