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Eredivisie

Referee: Jochem Kamphuis

Excelsior

T U T

3–0

Full-time

De Graafschap

T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior De Graafschap

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,0

This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 10

4 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · De Graafschap 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Zwolle	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+6	6
5	Roda	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	-3	6
7	Den Haag	3	1	2	0	+3	5
8	PSV Eindhoven	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Heerenveen	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Vitesse	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	2	1	-3	2
14	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-4	2
15	Excelsior	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Twente	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Cambuur	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	De Graafschap	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Roda	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Heracles	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Den Haag	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Excelsior	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Twente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Heracles	2	1	0	1	+3	3
3	Den Haag	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	PSV Eindhoven	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Cambuur	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Twente	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Vitesse	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	De Graafschap	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Roda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.