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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

De Graafschap

U T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Ajax

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

De Graafschap Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,0

This season — Eredivisie · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 46%

15%

76%

Points per game

0,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

67%

61%

Both score Ø 52%

64%

39%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,2

2,4

Conceded

2,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 10

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match De Graafschap 17. · Ajax 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	33	25	6	2	+60	81
2	PSV Eindhoven	33	25	6	2	+54	81
3	Feyenoord	33	18	6	9	+21	60
4	AZ Alkmaar	33	17	5	11	+15	56
5	Zwolle	31	14	6	11	+6	48
6	Heracles	30	13	8	9	+0	47
7	Groningen	32	13	8	11	-7	47
8	Nijmegen	33	13	7	13	-4	46
9	Vitesse	33	12	9	12	+17	45
10	Utrecht	29	12	7	10	+7	43
11	Den Haag	33	10	12	11	-1	42
12	Twente	33	12	6	15	-15	42
13	Heerenveen	33	11	8	14	-15	41
14	Roda	33	8	10	15	-20	34
15	Excelsior	33	6	9	18	-28	27
16	Willem II	33	5	11	17	-19	26
17	De Graafschap	33	5	7	21	-27	22
18	Cambuur	33	3	9	21	-44	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	13	3	1	+37	42
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	3	1	+25	42
3	Nijmegen	17	11	2	4	+8	35
4	Feyenoord	16	10	3	3	+18	33
5	AZ Alkmaar	17	10	2	5	+14	32
6	Zwolle	15	10	2	3	+11	32
7	Groningen	16	9	3	4	+5	30
8	Twente	16	9	2	5	+6	29
9	Heracles	15	8	4	3	+4	28
10	Vitesse	17	7	4	6	+12	25
11	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+5	25
12	Heerenveen	17	6	4	7	-5	22
13	Den Haag	16	4	7	5	-2	19
14	Excelsior	17	4	5	8	-10	17
15	Willem II	17	3	6	8	-7	15
16	Roda	16	3	6	7	-9	15
17	De Graafschap	16	3	5	8	-6	14
18	Cambuur	16	2	5	9	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+29	39
2	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Feyenoord	17	8	3	6	+3	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	3	6	+1	24
5	Den Haag	17	6	5	6	+1	23
6	Vitesse	16	5	5	6	+5	20
7	Heracles	15	5	4	6	-4	19
8	Heerenveen	16	5	4	7	-10	19
9	Roda	17	5	4	8	-11	19
10	Utrecht	15	5	3	7	+2	18
11	Groningen	16	4	5	7	-12	17
12	Zwolle	16	4	4	8	-5	16
13	Twente	17	3	4	10	-21	13
14	Willem II	16	2	5	9	-12	11
15	Nijmegen	16	2	5	9	-12	11
16	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	De Graafschap	17	2	2	13	-21	8
18	Cambuur	17	1	4	12	-26	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.