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Eredivisie

Referee: Richard Liesveld

Ajax

U S S S T

2–1

Full-time

De Graafschap

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax De Graafschap

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,8

Scored

3,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-1,2

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

75%

Points per game

2,4

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

56%

69%

Both score Ø 47%

38%

56%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,7

0,9

Conceded

0,6

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-1,4

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

19 Shots 15

10 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

13 Corners 5

5 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · De Graafschap 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	2	2	+33	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	11	5	1	+23	38
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+19	36
4	Vitesse	17	8	4	5	+18	28
5	Heracles	15	8	3	4	+7	27
6	Nijmegen	17	8	3	6	+4	27
7	Groningen	16	7	5	4	+0	26
8	Zwolle	16	7	4	5	+4	25
9	Utrecht	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Den Haag	17	4	8	5	-1	20
11	Heerenveen	17	5	5	7	-7	20
12	AZ Alkmaar	17	5	4	8	-5	19
13	Willem II	17	4	6	7	-1	18
14	Excelsior	17	4	5	8	-11	17
15	Roda	17	3	7	7	-16	16
16	Cambuur	17	2	7	8	-21	13
17	Twente	17	3	4	10	-23	13
18	De Graafschap	16	1	2	13	-23	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+16	22
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	2	0	+11	20
3	Groningen	8	6	2	0	+10	20
4	Nijmegen	9	6	2	1	+9	20
5	Ajax	7	6	0	1	+21	18
6	Vitesse	9	6	0	3	+14	18
7	Heracles	8	5	2	1	+7	17
8	Utrecht	7	4	3	0	+6	15
9	Heerenveen	9	4	3	2	+1	15
10	Zwolle	8	4	2	2	+0	14
11	Willem II	9	3	3	3	+3	12
12	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Roda	9	2	5	2	-3	11
14	Twente	8	3	1	4	-7	10
15	Den Haag	8	1	6	1	+0	9
16	Excelsior	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	Cambuur	9	1	4	4	-12	7
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	6	2	1	+12	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	3	1	+12	18
3	Feyenoord	9	4	2	3	+3	14
4	Zwolle	8	3	2	3	+4	11
5	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-1	11
6	Vitesse	8	2	4	2	+4	10
7	Heracles	7	3	1	3	+0	10
8	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	AZ Alkmaar	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Nijmegen	8	2	1	5	-5	7
11	Willem II	8	1	3	4	-4	6
12	Cambuur	8	1	3	4	-9	6
13	Groningen	8	1	3	4	-10	6
14	Utrecht	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Heerenveen	8	1	2	5	-8	5
16	Roda	8	1	2	5	-13	5
17	De Graafschap	8	1	1	6	-11	4
18	Twente	9	0	3	6	-16	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.