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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Excelsior

U T T T T

2–0

Full-time

De Graafschap

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior De Graafschap

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

4,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,8

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

72%

67%

Both score Ø 53%

61%

44%

Average goals

4,1

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

2,7

2,4

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 10

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 17. · De Graafschap 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	16	1	1	+52	49
2	Ajax	18	15	2	1	+52	47
3	Feyenoord	18	11	3	4	+13	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	18	8	4	6	+7	28
5	VVV Venlo	18	7	5	6	-1	26
6	Heracles	18	8	2	8	-5	26
7	Utrecht	16	7	4	5	+3	25
8	Vitesse	16	6	5	5	+2	23
9	Willem II	18	6	4	8	-6	22
10	Heerenveen	18	5	6	7	-3	21
11	Zwolle	19	6	3	10	-9	21
12	Den Haag	19	5	6	8	-13	21
13	For Sittard	18	5	5	8	-5	20
14	Groningen	17	5	3	9	-3	18
15	FC Emmen	18	4	6	8	-17	18
16	NAC Breda	19	4	4	11	-19	16
17	Excelsior	18	4	4	10	-23	16
18	De Graafschap	18	4	3	11	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+34	27
2	Feyenoord	9	8	0	1	+13	24
3	Ajax	9	7	2	0	+30	23
4	Heracles	9	6	0	3	+6	18
5	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	16
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	3	2	+7	15
7	VVV Venlo	8	4	3	1	+7	15
8	Vitesse	7	4	2	1	+3	14
9	NAC Breda	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	De Graafschap	10	4	1	5	-2	13
11	For Sittard	9	3	3	3	+2	12
12	Groningen	9	3	1	5	+2	10
13	Den Haag	9	2	3	4	-8	9
14	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-10	9
15	Willem II	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-5	8
17	FC Emmen	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	Heerenveen	8	1	3	4	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	8	0	1	+22	24
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+18	22
3	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	+4	15
4	Willem II	9	4	2	3	-2	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	13
6	Zwolle	9	4	1	4	-4	13
7	Feyenoord	9	3	3	3	+0	12
8	Den Haag	10	3	3	4	-5	12
9	VVV Venlo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
10	FC Emmen	8	3	2	3	-9	11
11	Vitesse	9	2	3	4	-1	9
12	Utrecht	8	2	3	3	-6	9
13	Groningen	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	For Sittard	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-11	8
16	Excelsior	9	2	1	6	-13	7
17	NAC Breda	9	0	2	7	-18	2
18	De Graafschap	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.