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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Mainz

T S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 45%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

40% Possession 60%

14 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 12

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 7. · Leverkusen 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	20	2	1	+47	62
2	Dortmund	22	16	3	3	+30	51
3	Hertha	23	11	6	6	+7	39
4	M'gladbach	23	11	3	9	+5	36
5	Leverkusen	22	10	5	7	+8	35
6	Schalke 04	22	10	4	8	+2	34
7	Mainz	22	10	3	9	+1	33
8	Wolfsburg	23	8	7	8	+1	31
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	23	8	6	9	-7	30
10	FC Koln	23	7	8	8	-5	29
11	Hamburg	23	7	7	9	-5	28
12	Stuttgart	23	8	4	11	-9	28
13	Augsburg	23	6	7	10	-7	25
14	Darmstadt	23	6	7	10	-11	25
15	Ein Frankfurt	22	5	7	10	-10	22
16	Werder Bremen	23	5	6	12	-19	21
17	Hoffenheim	22	3	9	10	-11	18
18	Hannover	23	5	2	16	-17	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	11	0	0	+33	33
2	Dortmund	10	9	1	0	+23	28
3	M'gladbach	12	8	1	3	+9	25
4	Wolfsburg	12	7	3	2	+14	24
5	Hertha	11	6	4	1	+7	22
6	Schalke 04	12	6	3	3	+3	21
7	Mainz	11	6	1	4	+2	19
8	Leverkusen	11	5	3	3	+8	18
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	+1	17
10	FC Koln	12	4	4	4	+0	16
11	Stuttgart	12	5	1	6	-5	16
12	Hamburg	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Hoffenheim	11	2	5	4	-4	11
15	Augsburg	12	2	4	6	-6	10
16	Werder Bremen	11	1	4	6	-11	7
17	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-11	7
18	Hannover	11	2	0	9	-7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+7	23
3	Darmstadt	12	5	3	4	+0	18
4	Hertha	12	5	2	5	+0	17
5	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
6	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	-1	15
7	Hamburg	11	4	3	4	-3	15
8	Mainz	11	4	2	5	-1	14
9	Werder Bremen	12	4	2	6	-8	14
10	Schalke 04	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	FC Koln	11	3	4	4	-5	13
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	3	4	5	-8	13
13	Stuttgart	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	M'gladbach	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Hannover	12	3	2	7	-10	11
16	Ein Frankfurt	11	2	3	6	-7	9
17	Hoffenheim	11	1	4	6	-7	7
18	Wolfsburg	11	1	4	6	-13	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.