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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Nacional

T T T S U

0–4

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

4,0

Scored

1,7

2,8

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 50%

24%

76%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 53%

57%

48%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	22	17	1	4	+44	52
2	Sp Lisbon	21	16	4	1	+29	52
3	Porto	22	15	4	3	+28	49
4	Sp Braga	21	11	6	4	+21	39
5	Guimaraes	21	8	7	6	-1	31
6	Pacos Ferreira	21	8	6	7	+4	30
7	Rio Ave	21	8	5	8	-2	29
8	Arouca	21	6	10	5	+1	28
9	Belenenses	22	7	7	8	-18	28
10	Vitoria Setubal	21	6	8	7	-6	26
11	Estoril	21	6	5	10	-8	23
12	U. Madeira	21	6	5	10	-11	23
13	Moreirense	22	6	5	11	-12	23
14	Maritimo	21	6	4	11	-12	22
15	Nacional	21	5	6	10	-8	21
16	Boavista	21	5	5	11	-12	20
17	Academica	21	4	6	11	-17	18
18	Tondela	21	2	4	15	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+25	27
2	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+13	27
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Braga	10	7	2	1	+20	23
5	Rio Ave	11	7	0	4	+4	21
6	U. Madeira	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	2	4	+5	17
8	Academica	11	4	4	3	-3	16
9	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	-3	16
10	Nacional	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Arouca	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	Guimaraes	11	4	3	4	+2	15
13	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
14	Maritimo	10	4	2	4	+4	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	7	2	-6	13
16	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Moreirense	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+19	25
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+16	25
3	Porto	11	7	2	2	+13	23
4	Sp Braga	11	4	4	3	+1	16
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	-3	16
6	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-5	14
7	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	1	5	+0	13
8	Arouca	11	2	7	2	-1	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
11	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
12	Rio Ave	10	1	5	4	-6	8
13	Estoril	11	2	2	7	-10	8
14	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-16	8
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-10	6
16	Tondela	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	U. Madeira	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Academica	10	0	2	8	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.