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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Arouca

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

36%

24%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

48%

64%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

60%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

6 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Vitoria Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	26	19	5	2	+35	62
2	Benfica	25	20	1	4	+49	61
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+29	58
4	Sp Braga	25	13	8	4	+25	47
5	Arouca	25	9	11	5	+7	38
6	Rio Ave	25	10	6	9	-1	36
7	Guimaraes	25	8	10	7	-3	34
8	Estoril	26	9	6	11	-3	33
9	Pacos Ferreira	25	8	8	9	-1	32
10	Maritimo	26	8	5	13	-15	29
11	Belenenses	25	7	8	10	-21	29
12	Nacional	25	7	7	11	-8	28
13	Vitoria Setubal	25	6	10	9	-10	28
14	Moreirense	25	7	5	13	-13	26
15	U. Madeira	26	6	7	13	-17	25
16	Boavista	26	6	6	14	-13	24
17	Academica	25	5	7	13	-18	22
18	Tondela	25	3	4	18	-22	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	2	1	+17	32
2	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+27	30
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	3	1	+14	30
4	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+22	27
5	Rio Ave	13	7	1	5	+2	22
6	Estoril	13	6	3	4	+5	21
7	U. Madeira	13	5	5	3	+2	20
8	Arouca	12	5	4	3	+5	19
9	Academica	13	5	4	4	-3	19
10	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	3	5	+3	18
11	Nacional	12	5	3	4	+1	18
12	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	+2	17
13	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	+0	17
14	Belenenses	12	4	4	4	-6	16
15	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	8	3	-7	14
16	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Moreirense	12	2	3	7	-8	9
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Porto	13	8	2	3	+12	26
4	Sp Braga	13	5	5	3	+3	20
5	Arouca	13	4	7	2	+2	19
6	Guimaraes	12	4	5	3	-5	17
7	Moreirense	13	5	2	6	-5	17
8	Rio Ave	12	3	5	4	-3	14
9	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	2	6	-3	14
10	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-4	14
11	Boavista	13	4	2	7	-5	14
12	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
13	Estoril	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	Maritimo	13	3	3	7	-15	12
15	Nacional	13	2	4	7	-9	10
16	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-8	8
17	U. Madeira	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Academica	12	0	3	9	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.