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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Estoril

S T S U S

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

41%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

15 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 8. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	28	1	4	+63	85
2	Sp Lisbon	33	26	5	2	+54	83
3	Porto	33	22	4	7	+33	70
4	Sp Braga	33	16	10	7	+23	58
5	Arouca	32	13	13	6	+9	52
6	Pacos Ferreira	33	13	9	11	+1	48
7	Rio Ave	33	13	8	12	-1	47
8	Estoril	32	13	7	12	+0	46
9	Guimaraes	33	9	12	12	-8	39
10	Nacional	33	10	8	15	-13	38
11	Belenenses	33	9	11	13	-23	38
12	Maritimo	33	10	5	18	-17	35
13	Boavista	33	8	9	16	-13	33
14	Moreirense	33	8	9	16	-17	33
15	Vitoria Setubal	33	6	11	16	-21	29
16	U. Madeira	33	7	8	18	-22	29
17	Tondela	33	7	6	20	-22	27
18	Academica	33	5	10	18	-26	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+27	42
3	Sp Braga	16	11	4	1	+28	37
4	Porto	16	11	2	3	+18	35
5	Estoril	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Arouca	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Nacional	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Rio Ave	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	U. Madeira	16	6	6	4	+3	24
11	Maritimo	17	7	2	8	+2	23
12	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+4	22
13	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-8	20
14	Academica	17	5	5	7	-8	20
15	Boavista	17	4	5	8	-7	17
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	8	6	-10	14
17	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-10	11
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+27	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+27	41
3	Porto	17	11	2	4	+15	35
4	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-1	23
5	Arouca	16	5	8	3	-1	23
6	Moreirense	17	6	4	7	-7	22
7	Sp Braga	17	5	6	6	-5	21
8	Rio Ave	16	4	7	5	-3	19
9	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-15	18
10	Tondela	17	5	2	10	-9	17
11	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-12	17
12	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
13	Estoril	16	4	4	8	-8	16
14	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	3	10	-11	15
15	Maritimo	16	3	3	10	-19	12
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	Academica	16	0	5	11	-18	5
18	U. Madeira	17	1	2	14	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.