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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Sp Braga

S S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Chaves

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Chaves 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Porto	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	Sp Lisbon	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+3	14
6	Chaves	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	Feirense	8	3	1	4	-7	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	+0	9
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Belenenses	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-5	7
15	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-6	7
16	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Moreirense	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Arouca	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Chaves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Arouca	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-5	4
16	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+2	9
3	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Chaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	+0	4
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.