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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira

Arouca

U T S T T

0–1

Full-time

Chaves

U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

33%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Chaves 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Belenenses	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Chaves	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Boavista	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Estoril	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	3
10	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Feirense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Chaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.