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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Chaves

U U S U S

0–2

Full-time

Benfica

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 62%

40%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

20%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

40%

83%

Average goals

1,6

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

40%

80%

Points per game

1,8

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

40%

80%

Average goals

1,6

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

0,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

28% Possession 72%

10 Shots 14

1 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

23 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 6. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+7	15
2	Porto	6	4	1	1	+7	13
3	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Chaves	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Feirense	6	3	0	3	-3	9
8	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Belenenses	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Nacional	6	2	0	4	-1	6
12	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Arouca	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Chaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Feirense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Porto	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Nacional	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.