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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Nacional

T T T T T

2–0

Full-time

Maritimo

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

0,5

0,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

18 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Maritimo 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Belenenses	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Chaves	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boavista	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-4	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Estoril	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Feirense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Chaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.