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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

S T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Chaves

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 55%

77%

32%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

55%

27%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,7

1,9

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

69% Possession 31%

17 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Chaves 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	22	17	3	2	+36	54
2	Porto	22	16	5	1	+34	53
3	Sp Lisbon	22	13	5	4	+16	44
4	Guimaraes	23	11	6	6	+6	39
5	Sp Braga	22	11	5	6	+13	38
6	Maritimo	22	9	6	7	+2	33
7	Chaves	22	7	11	4	+4	32
8	Boavista	22	7	8	7	+0	29
9	Vitoria Setubal	22	8	5	9	+0	29
10	Rio Ave	22	8	4	10	-4	28
11	Arouca	22	8	3	11	-9	27
12	Belenenses	22	6	8	8	-5	26
13	Feirense	22	7	4	11	-17	25
14	Pacos Ferreira	22	6	5	11	-11	23
15	Estoril	22	5	5	12	-10	20
16	Moreirense	23	5	4	14	-15	19
17	Nacional	22	3	6	13	-17	15
18	Tondela	22	3	5	14	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+25	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+16	28
4	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+14	26
5	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Chaves	12	5	6	1	+6	21
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	4	2	+3	19
9	Rio Ave	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+1	16
11	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
12	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	-1	14
13	Feirense	12	4	2	6	-9	14
14	Boavista	10	3	3	4	+1	12
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-4	10
17	Estoril	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
3	Porto	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	Boavista	12	4	5	3	-1	17
5	Sp Lisbon	11	4	4	3	+0	16
6	Sp Braga	10	3	3	4	-1	12
7	Belenenses	11	3	3	5	-4	12
8	Maritimo	11	3	3	5	-4	12
9	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Rio Ave	11	3	2	6	-4	11
11	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
12	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-9	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	12	3	0	9	-11	9
16	Nacional	11	1	2	8	-10	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	1	9	-14	4
18	Tondela	12	0	3	9	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.