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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Chaves

U S T U U

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

29%

43%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

43%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 7. · Arouca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	16	5	1	+34	53
2	Benfica	21	16	3	2	+35	51
3	Sp Lisbon	21	12	5	4	+15	41
4	Sp Braga	21	11	5	5	+14	38
5	Guimaraes	21	10	5	6	+5	35
6	Maritimo	21	9	5	7	+2	32
7	Chaves	21	6	11	4	+2	29
8	Vitoria Setubal	21	8	5	8	+1	29
9	Rio Ave	21	8	4	9	-3	28
10	Arouca	21	8	3	10	-7	27
11	Boavista	21	6	8	7	-1	26
12	Belenenses	21	6	7	8	-5	25
13	Feirense	21	7	4	10	-16	25
14	Pacos Ferreira	21	5	5	11	-12	20
15	Estoril	21	5	4	12	-10	19
16	Moreirense	21	5	3	13	-14	18
17	Nacional	21	3	5	13	-17	14
18	Tondela	22	3	5	14	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	34
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+25	29
3	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+15	25
5	Maritimo	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Vitoria Setubal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Chaves	11	4	6	1	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	11	5	2	4	+0	17
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Feirense	11	4	2	5	-8	14
12	Guimaraes	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-1	13
14	Boavista	10	3	3	4	+1	12
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Estoril	10	3	1	6	-4	10
17	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-7	10
18	Moreirense	10	2	3	5	-4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Porto	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	Sp Lisbon	11	4	4	3	+0	16
5	Boavista	11	3	5	3	-2	14
6	Sp Braga	10	3	3	4	-1	12
7	Belenenses	11	3	3	5	-4	12
8	Maritimo	11	3	3	5	-4	12
9	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-2	11
10	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-3	11
11	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-7	11
12	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
13	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Estoril	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
16	Nacional	10	1	1	8	-10	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	1	9	-14	4
18	Tondela	12	0	3	9	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.