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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Benfica

S S U S T

3–0

Full-time

Nacional

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

74%

16%

Points per game

2,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

70% Possession 30%

12 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

2 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	20	14	5	1	+28	47
2	Benfica	19	14	3	2	+29	45
3	Sp Lisbon	20	11	5	4	+14	38
4	Sp Braga	19	11	3	5	+14	36
5	Guimaraes	20	10	5	5	+7	35
6	Chaves	20	6	10	4	+2	28
7	Vitoria Setubal	20	8	4	8	+1	28
8	Maritimo	19	8	4	7	+1	28
9	Rio Ave	19	8	3	8	-2	27
10	Arouca	20	8	3	9	-4	27
11	Boavista	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Belenenses	19	6	5	8	-5	23
13	Pacos Ferreira	20	5	5	10	-11	20
14	Feirense	19	5	4	10	-18	19
15	Moreirense	19	5	3	11	-12	18
16	Estoril	19	4	3	12	-11	15
17	Nacional	19	3	4	12	-14	13
18	Tondela	19	3	4	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+18	31
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
5	Vitoria Setubal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Chaves	11	4	6	1	+4	18
7	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
8	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+0	16
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+2	13
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
14	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-7	9
18	Estoril	9	2	1	6	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Porto	9	4	4	1	+10	16
4	Boavista	11	3	5	3	-2	14
5	Sp Lisbon	10	3	4	3	-1	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Chaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Nacional	9	1	1	7	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	1	8	-13	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.