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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Benfica

S S S S U

4–0

Full-time

Tondela

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

76%

12%

Points per game

2,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 4

8 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Porto	18	12	5	1	+26	41
3	Sp Braga	17	11	3	3	+16	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Maritimo	18	8	3	7	+1	27
7	Chaves	17	5	9	3	+2	24
8	Boavista	18	6	6	6	+0	24
9	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
10	Arouca	18	7	2	9	-5	23
11	Vitoria Setubal	17	6	4	7	+0	22
12	Belenenses	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
14	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
15	Estoril	17	4	3	10	-9	15
16	Feirense	17	4	3	10	-19	15
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	17	2	4	11	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+16	25
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
4	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+15	20
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
7	Chaves	9	3	5	1	+2	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	8	3	3	2	+0	12
13	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
14	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-10	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+6	19
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
12	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	9	0	2	7	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.