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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Belenenses

U T U U T

2–5

Full-time

Aves

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 22%

24%

19%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

38%

48%

Both score Ø 43%

38%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–4

74% Possession 26%

15 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Aves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	22	16	5	1	+40	53
2	Porto	20	16	4	0	+39	52
3	Sp Lisbon	21	15	5	1	+30	50
4	Sp Braga	22	15	1	6	+20	46
5	Rio Ave	22	11	3	8	+5	36
6	Chaves	21	8	6	7	-3	30
7	Guimaraes	21	9	2	10	-7	29
8	Maritimo	22	8	5	9	-10	29
9	Boavista	21	8	3	10	-6	27
10	Tondela	22	7	4	11	-8	25
11	Portimonense	22	6	6	10	-3	24
12	Belenenses	21	5	6	10	-12	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	22	5	6	11	-15	21
14	Feirense	21	6	2	13	-9	20
15	Moreirense	21	4	7	10	-14	19
16	Vitoria Setubal	22	3	9	10	-15	18
17	Estoril	20	5	3	12	-18	18
18	Aves	21	4	5	12	-14	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+27	31
2	Sp Braga	12	10	0	2	+20	30
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+20	29
4	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+26	28
5	Rio Ave	11	7	1	3	+9	22
6	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+3	21
7	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	-1	19
8	Boavista	10	6	0	4	-1	18
9	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+5	17
10	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	+4	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	Chaves	10	3	5	2	+3	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	+0	14
14	Estoril	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Feirense	11	4	1	6	-4	13
16	Tondela	11	3	2	6	-5	11
17	Moreirense	10	1	6	3	-5	9
18	Aves	11	2	2	7	-8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	7	4	1	+14	25
2	Porto	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Sp Lisbon	10	6	3	1	+10	21
4	Sp Braga	10	5	1	4	+0	16
5	Chaves	11	5	1	5	-6	16
6	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-3	14
7	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-4	14
8	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-6	10
9	Moreirense	11	3	1	7	-9	10
10	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-5	9
11	Aves	10	2	3	5	-6	9
12	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
13	Feirense	10	2	1	7	-5	7
14	Portimonense	11	1	4	6	-8	7
15	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-15	5
16	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-16	5
17	Belenenses	11	1	2	8	-16	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	11	0	4	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.