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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Tondela

T S U T U

2–2

Full-time

Portimonense

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

4,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

32%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

43%

64%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

68%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

25 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Portimonense 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	22	5	1	+57	71
2	Porto	28	22	4	2	+54	70
3	Sp Lisbon	28	20	5	3	+35	65
4	Sp Braga	28	21	1	6	+39	64
5	Rio Ave	29	13	4	12	-3	43
6	Maritimo	28	12	6	10	-8	42
7	Boavista	28	11	4	13	-9	37
8	Chaves	28	10	6	12	-12	36
9	Guimaraes	29	11	3	15	-13	36
10	Portimonense	28	9	7	12	-6	34
11	Belenenses	28	8	8	12	-11	32
12	Tondela	28	8	6	14	-9	30
13	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	10	12	-16	28
14	Pacos Ferreira	28	7	7	14	-17	28
15	Aves	28	6	7	15	-14	25
16	Moreirense	28	6	7	15	-18	25
17	Feirense	28	7	2	19	-17	23
18	Estoril	28	6	4	18	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	1	0	+39	40
2	Porto	14	13	1	0	+35	40
3	Sp Braga	15	13	0	2	+25	39
4	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+25	38
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+9	30
6	Rio Ave	14	9	2	3	+12	29
7	Boavista	14	9	1	4	+5	28
8	Guimaraes	14	8	2	4	-2	26
9	Belenenses	14	6	5	3	+4	23
10	Portimonense	14	7	2	5	+3	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	6	4	4	+1	22
12	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	6	3	+2	21
13	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Feirense	14	5	1	8	-5	16
15	Moreirense	14	3	6	5	-4	15
16	Tondela	14	4	2	8	-5	14
17	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-12	14
18	Aves	14	3	3	8	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	9	4	1	+18	31
2	Porto	14	9	3	2	+19	30
3	Sp Lisbon	14	8	3	3	+10	27
4	Sp Braga	13	8	1	4	+14	25
5	Chaves	14	6	1	7	-9	19
6	Tondela	14	4	4	6	-4	16
7	Rio Ave	15	4	2	9	-15	14
8	Aves	14	3	4	7	-6	13
9	Maritimo	14	3	3	8	-17	12
10	Portimonense	14	2	5	7	-9	11
11	Guimaraes	15	3	1	11	-11	10
12	Moreirense	14	3	1	10	-14	10
13	Boavista	14	2	3	9	-14	9
14	Belenenses	14	2	3	9	-15	9
15	Estoril	14	2	2	10	-20	8
16	Feirense	14	2	1	11	-12	7
17	Vitoria Setubal	14	1	4	9	-18	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.