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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Tondela

T T S T T

2–0

Full-time

Chaves

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

11 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

23 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Chaves 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+55	67
2	Benfica	25	19	5	1	+51	62
3	Sp Lisbon	25	18	5	2	+33	59
4	Sp Braga	25	18	1	6	+32	55
5	Rio Ave	24	11	4	9	+0	37
6	Chaves	24	10	6	8	-4	36
7	Boavista	25	10	3	12	-8	33
8	Maritimo	25	9	6	10	-14	33
9	Guimaraes	24	9	2	13	-14	29
10	Portimonense	24	7	6	11	-5	27
11	Belenenses	24	7	6	11	-12	27
12	Tondela	24	7	4	13	-10	25
13	Feirense	25	7	2	16	-11	23
14	Aves	24	5	7	12	-11	22
15	Vitoria Setubal	24	4	9	11	-18	21
16	Pacos Ferreira	24	5	6	13	-18	21
17	Estoril	25	6	3	16	-29	21
18	Moreirense	24	4	7	13	-17	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+33	37
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+23	35
3	Benfica	12	11	1	0	+35	34
4	Sp Braga	13	11	0	2	+21	33
5	Boavista	12	8	0	4	+4	24
6	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+4	24
7	Rio Ave	12	7	2	3	+9	23
8	Belenenses	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	-6	19
10	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	+1	17
11	Chaves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
12	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	4	4	-2	16
14	Feirense	13	5	1	7	-3	16
15	Estoril	13	4	1	8	-12	13
16	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-6	11
17	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Aves	12	2	3	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Sp Lisbon	12	7	3	2	+10	24
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+11	22
5	Chaves	12	6	1	5	-5	19
6	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-9	14
8	Aves	12	3	4	5	-3	13
9	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
10	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-8	10
11	Moreirense	12	3	1	8	-10	10
12	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-12	9
13	Maritimo	13	2	3	8	-18	9
14	Belenenses	12	2	2	8	-14	8
15	Estoril	12	2	2	8	-17	8
16	Feirense	12	2	1	9	-8	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-16	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	12	0	4	8	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.