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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Belenenses

T T S S U

0–0

Full-time

Tondela

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

28%

32%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

44%

Both score Ø 42%

36%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 12. · Tondela 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+55	67
2	Benfica	26	20	5	1	+53	65
3	Sp Lisbon	25	18	5	2	+33	59
4	Sp Braga	26	19	1	6	+35	58
5	Rio Ave	26	12	4	10	+0	40
6	Chaves	25	10	6	9	-6	36
7	Boavista	26	11	3	12	-7	36
8	Maritimo	26	10	6	10	-12	36
9	Portimonense	26	8	6	12	-7	30
10	Guimaraes	26	9	3	14	-15	30
11	Tondela	25	8	4	13	-8	28
12	Belenenses	25	7	7	11	-12	28
13	Aves	26	6	7	13	-10	25
14	Vitoria Setubal	26	5	9	12	-19	24
15	Feirense	26	7	2	17	-12	23
16	Moreirense	26	5	7	14	-18	22
17	Pacos Ferreira	25	5	6	14	-20	21
18	Estoril	26	6	3	17	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+37	37
2	Porto	13	12	1	0	+33	37
3	Sp Braga	14	12	0	2	+24	36
4	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+23	35
5	Maritimo	13	8	3	2	+6	27
6	Boavista	13	9	0	4	+5	27
7	Rio Ave	13	8	2	3	+10	26
8	Portimonense	13	6	2	5	+2	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	-6	20
11	Belenenses	12	5	4	3	+2	19
12	Chaves	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	4	4	-2	16
14	Feirense	13	5	1	7	-3	16
15	Tondela	13	4	2	7	-4	14
16	Estoril	13	4	1	8	-12	13
17	Aves	13	3	3	7	-5	12
18	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	9	3	0	+22	30
2	Benfica	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Sp Lisbon	12	7	3	2	+10	24
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+11	22
5	Chaves	13	6	1	6	-7	19
6	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	Rio Ave	13	4	2	7	-10	14
8	Aves	13	3	4	6	-5	13
9	Guimaraes	14	3	1	10	-9	10
10	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-9	10
11	Moreirense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
12	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-12	9
13	Belenenses	13	2	3	8	-14	9
14	Maritimo	13	2	3	8	-18	9
15	Estoril	13	2	2	9	-18	8
16	Feirense	13	2	1	10	-9	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	13	1	2	10	-18	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.