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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Aves

T T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

23%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 41%

42%

39%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 17. · Estoril 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	26	4	2	+62	82
2	Benfica	32	24	5	3	+57	77
3	Sp Lisbon	32	24	5	3	+40	77
4	Sp Braga	32	24	2	6	+46	74
5	Rio Ave	32	14	5	13	-3	47
6	Maritimo	32	12	8	12	-11	44
7	Boavista	32	12	5	15	-10	41
8	Chaves	32	11	8	13	-12	41
9	Guimaraes	32	12	4	16	-13	40
10	Tondela	32	10	8	14	-5	38
11	Portimonense	32	9	8	15	-9	35
12	Belenenses	32	8	10	14	-13	34
13	Moreirense	32	8	8	16	-17	32
14	Feirense	32	9	3	20	-15	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	11	15	-23	29
16	Pacos Ferreira	32	7	8	17	-24	29
17	Aves	31	7	7	17	-18	28
18	Estoril	31	7	5	19	-32	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	15	1	0	+41	46
2	Sp Lisbon	16	14	2	0	+28	44
3	Sp Braga	16	14	0	2	+27	42
4	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+37	40
5	Rio Ave	16	10	3	3	+13	33
6	Boavista	16	10	2	4	+6	32
7	Maritimo	16	9	4	3	+8	31
8	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	-1	30
9	Belenenses	16	6	5	5	+2	23
10	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	+1	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-3	23
12	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	6	5	-1	21
13	Chaves	16	5	6	5	-2	21
14	Moreirense	16	5	6	5	-2	21
15	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
16	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-2	18
17	Aves	15	4	3	8	-7	15
18	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-13	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	11	4	1	+20	37
2	Porto	16	11	3	2	+21	36
3	Sp Lisbon	16	10	3	3	+12	33
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+19	32
5	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-3	20
6	Chaves	16	6	2	8	-10	20
7	Rio Ave	16	4	2	10	-16	14
8	Aves	16	3	4	9	-11	13
9	Maritimo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
10	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-10	12
11	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-15	11
12	Belenenses	16	2	5	9	-15	11
13	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
14	Feirense	16	3	1	12	-11	10
15	Guimaraes	16	3	1	12	-12	10
16	Boavista	16	2	3	11	-16	9
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	1	5	10	-22	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	1	3	12	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.