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Primeira Liga
Referee: Vitor Ferreira
Estoril
T T U U T
3–2
Full-time
Aves
T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Aves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,7
2,2
Scored
0,2
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 18%
14%
21%
Points per game
0,6
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 40%
29%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
0,6
0,9
Conceded
2,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,4
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

48% Possession 52%
20 Shots 7
11 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 13
15 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Estoril 18. · Aves 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 14 11 3 0 +31 36
2 Sp Lisbon 14 11 3 0 +21 36
3 Benfica 14 10 3 1 +23 33
4 Sp Braga 14 9 1 4 +12 28
5 Maritimo 14 8 3 3 +5 27
6 Rio Ave 14 7 2 5 +5 23
7 Guimaraes 14 7 2 5 -4 23
8 Boavista 15 6 2 7 -2 20
9 Chaves 14 5 3 6 -3 18
10 Belenenses 14 5 2 7 -4 17
11 Portimonense 14 4 4 6 -2 16
12 Tondela 14 4 3 7 -4 15
13 Aves 14 3 4 7 -8 13
14 Pacos Ferreira 15 3 4 8 -13 13
15 Feirense 14 3 2 9 -8 11
16 Vitoria Setubal 14 2 4 8 -15 10
17 Moreirense 14 1 5 8 -14 8
18 Estoril 14 2 2 10 -20 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estoril Aves
Rafik Halliche 🟨
30′
Eduardo 🔁
↦ André Claro
35′
1–0 Lucas Evangelista
Aylton Boa Morte
42′
45′
Paulo Machado 1–1
Half-time 1–1
Pedro Monteiro 🟨
46′
Allano 🔁
↦ Aylton Boa Morte
46′
2–1 Allano
51′
Allano 🟨
52′
60′
🔁 R. Gauld
↦ Bruno Braga
3–1 Kléber
67′
73′
🟨 Cristian Arango
74′
🔁 Baldé
↦ C. Arango
81′
🔁 Derley
↦ Nelson Lenho
Abner Felipe 🔁
↦ Victor Andrade
91′
93′
Paulo Machado 3–2
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Estoril

4-4-2
31 Moreira G
32 R. Halliche D
5 Joel D
25 C. Kyriakou D
4 Pedro Monteiro D
12 Fernando Fonseca D
17 Lucas Evangelista M
10 Kléber F
22 André Claro F
33 Victor Andrade M
70 Aylton Boa Morte F
Bench (7)
8 Eduardo
11 Allano
30 Abner Felipe
9 Bruno Gomes
23 Wesley
29 J. Aguilar
96 Luís Ribeiro

Coach: Filipe Pedro

Aves

4-3-3
1 Quim G
21 Nelson Lenho D
44 Diego Galo D
2 Rodrigo Alves D
10 Paulo Machado M
19 Bruno Braga M
30 Vitor Gomes M
26 Ponck D
77 Salvador Agra M
99 C. Arango F
23 Amilton M
Bench (7)
27 R. Gauld
50 Baldé
33 Derley
5 Rodrigo Defendi
12 Marco Pinto
16 Nildo Petrolina
29 Claudio Falcão

Coach: Lito Vidigal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Vitor Ferreira · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,31 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.