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La Liga
Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva
Villarreal
U T S U S
0–1
Full-time
Valladolid
T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Valladolid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,3
1,8
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,2
This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,3
1,8
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%
26 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 2
0 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 10. · Valladolid 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 7 4 2 1 +10 14
2 Real Madrid 7 4 2 1 +6 14
3 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 +9 13
4 Ath Madrid 7 3 3 1 +4 12
5 Alaves 6 3 2 1 +3 11
6 Espanol 7 3 2 2 +2 11
7 Celta 6 2 3 1 +2 9
8 Betis 6 2 3 1 -1 9
9 Girona 7 2 3 2 -2 9
10 Villarreal 6 2 2 2 +2 8
11 Getafe 6 2 2 2 +0 8
12 Sociedad 7 2 2 3 -1 8
13 Valencia 7 1 5 1 -1 8
14 Ath Bilbao 6 1 4 1 -2 7
15 Eibar 7 2 1 4 -4 7
16 Valladolid 6 1 3 2 -1 6
17 Vallecano 6 1 2 3 -7 5
18 Huesca 7 1 2 4 -10 5
19 Levante 6 1 1 4 -4 4
20 Leganes 6 1 1 4 -5 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Valladolid
Mario Gaspar 🟨
35′
36′
🟨 Duje Čop
Carlos Bacca 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–0
M. Layún 🔁
↦ Mario Gaspar
46′
53′
L. Suárez 0–1
Santi Cazorla 🟨
60′
K. Toko Ekambi 🔁
↦ Santi Cazorla
66′
70′
🔁 Anuar Tuhami
↦ L. Suárez
Alfonso Pedraza 🔁
↦ Jaume Costa
77′
82′
🟨 Kiko Olivas
85′
🟨 Nacho Martinez
85′
🔁 Ivi López
↦ Toni Suárez
94′
🔁 Borja Fernández
↦ Míchel
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2
1 Sergio Asenjo G
2 Mario Gaspar D
11 Jaume Costa D
6 Víctor Ruíz D
4 Ramiro Funes Mori D
3 Álvaro González D
19 Santi Cazorla M
14 Trigueros M
8 Pablo Fornals M
9 C. Bacca F
7 Gerard Moreno F
Bench (7)
24 M. Layún
17 K. Toko Ekambi
16 Alfonso Pedraza
10 N. Sansone
13 Andrés Fernández
20 M. Iturra
22 Dani Raba

Coach: Javi Calleja

Valladolid

4-4-2
1 Jordi Masip G
17 Javi Moyano D
4 Kiko Olivas D
18 Antoñito D
22 Nacho Martínez D
5 Fernando Calero D
21 Míchel M
14 Rubén Alcaraz M
32 L. Suárez F
19 Toni Suárez M
20 D. Čop F
Bench (7)
23 Anuar Tuhami
7 Ivi López
8 Borja Fernández
3 Moi Delgado
13 Yoel
24 Keko
27 Miguel De la Fuente

Coach: Sergio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.