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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Porto

U S S U U

2–0

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 50%

76%

24%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

48%

38%

Both score Ø 43%

38%

48%

Average goals

2,6

1,9

Scored

2,0

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

77% Possession 23%

20 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 1. · Vitoria Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	21	16	3	2	+30	51
2	Benfica	21	16	2	3	+37	50
3	Sp Braga	21	15	4	2	+22	49
4	Sp Lisbon	21	13	3	5	+16	42
5	Guimaraes	22	10	5	7	+6	35
6	Moreirense	21	11	2	8	-2	35
7	Belenenses	21	7	9	5	+1	30
8	Rio Ave	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Santa Clara	22	8	3	11	-2	27
10	Portimonense	22	8	3	11	-7	27
11	Tondela	21	6	5	10	-5	23
12	Nacional	22	6	5	11	-21	23
13	Vitoria Setubal	21	5	7	9	-4	22
14	Boavista	21	6	4	11	-10	22
15	Aves	21	6	3	12	-11	21
16	Maritimo	21	6	2	13	-13	20
17	Chaves	21	5	3	13	-14	18
18	Feirense	22	2	8	12	-22	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Porto	10	9	0	1	+20	27
4	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+26	25
5	Guimaraes	11	6	3	2	+6	21
6	Moreirense	10	6	2	2	+4	20
7	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	17
9	Boavista	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Belenenses	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Nacional	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	+0	12
14	Aves	11	3	3	5	-1	12
15	Chaves	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Santa Clara	11	3	1	7	-5	10
17	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Feirense	10	1	5	4	-4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
3	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+5	18
4	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+3	17
5	Belenenses	11	3	6	2	-1	15
6	Moreirense	11	5	0	6	-6	15
7	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	4	5	-4	10
11	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-7	10
12	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-3	9
13	Aves	10	3	0	7	-10	9
14	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-11	9
15	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-16	9
16	Chaves	11	2	1	8	-11	7
17	Boavista	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Feirense	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.