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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Cardiff

T T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Luton

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/1 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,8

6,0

Scored

1,3

3,0

Conceded

1,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

6,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

16 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 15. · Luton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
2	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.