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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Reading

T T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Watford

T T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

0,7

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,3

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 2. · Watford 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Reading	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Bristol City	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Watford	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Blackburn	3	2	0	1	+8	6
7	Luton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Millwall	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Cardiff	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Huddersfield	3	1	0	2	-3	3
19	Derby	4	1	0	3	-6	3
20	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Nott'm Forest	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Wycombe	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Reading	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Coventry	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Millwall	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Wycombe	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Derby	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.