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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fábio Veríssimo
Sp Lisbon
S S U S S
2–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,5
2,2
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 78%
82%
73%
Points per game
2,6
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
73%
64%
Both score Ø 50%
55%
45%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
2,4
1,9
Conceded
0,7
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%
6 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Sp Braga 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 11 9 2 0 +18 29
2 Benfica 11 9 0 2 +13 27
3 Porto 11 8 1 2 +13 25
4 Sp Braga 11 8 0 3 +11 24
5 Guimaraes 11 6 1 4 +3 19
6 Pacos Ferreira 11 4 4 3 +1 16
7 Maritimo 11 4 1 6 -2 13
8 Nacional 11 3 4 4 -2 13
9 Moreirense 11 3 4 4 -2 13
10 Santa Clara 11 4 1 6 -4 13
11 Gil Vicente 11 3 3 5 -3 12
12 Belenenses 11 2 5 4 -3 11
13 Famalicao 11 2 5 4 -6 11
14 Rio Ave 11 2 5 4 -7 11
15 Farense 11 2 3 6 -4 9
16 Boavista 11 1 6 4 -8 9
17 Tondela 11 2 3 6 -11 9
18 Portimonense 11 2 2 7 -7 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Sp Braga
Vitorino Antunes 🟨
-5′
37′
🟨 Wenderson Galeno
Half-time 0–0
48′
ℹ️ Paulinho
VAR: Goal cancelled
51′
🟨 Raul Silva
1–0 Pedro Gonçalves
Nuno Santos
54′
A. Šporar 🔁
↦ Tiago Tomás
57′
Bruno Tabata 🔁
↦ Nuno Santos
57′
58′
🟨 Mutassim Al Musrati
64′
🔁 Iuri Medeiros
↦ João Novais
Matheus Nunes 🔁
↦ Pedro Gonçalves
72′
2–0 Matheus Nunes
78′
Pedro Porro 🟨
80′
82′
🔁 Guilherme Schettine
↦ Galeno
88′
🟨 Matheus
Matheus Nunes 🟨
90′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 Adán G
13 Luís Carlos D
4 S. Coates D
3 Z. Feddal D
24 Pedro Porro M
5 Nuno Mendes M
17 João Mário M
6 João Palhinha M
28 Pedro Gonçalves F
11 Nuno Santos F
19 Tiago Tomás F
Bench (9)
9 A. Šporar
7 Bruno Tabata
8 Matheus Nunes
20 G. Plata
55 Antunes
52 Gonçalo Inácio
81 Luís Maximiano
77 Jovane Cabral
68 Daniel Bragança

Coach: Emanuel Ferro

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 Matheus G
6 Rolando D
34 Raúl Silva D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
5 Nuno Sequeira D
27 Fransérgio F
7 João Novais M
8 Ali Musrati M
20 Paulinho F
21 Ricardo Horta F
90 Galeno M
Bench (9)
45 Iuri Medeiros
95 Guilherme Schettine
15 André Horta
12 Tiago Sá
9 Abel Ruiz
2 Zé Carlos
57 Rodrigo Gomes
73 Zé Pedro
86 Bruno Rodrigues

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,06
U
3,51
B
3,41
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,70
U2,5 ✓
2,14
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.