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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Swansea

U S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

This season — Championship · 24/29 matches

Win Ø 41%

54%

28%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

21%

28%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

41%

Average goals

1,8

1,9

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

5 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 6. · Nott'm Forest 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	29	17	7	5	+15	58
2	Watford	30	15	9	6	+18	54
3	Brentford	27	15	8	4	+24	53
4	Reading	30	15	6	9	+10	51
5	Bournemouth	28	12	10	6	+16	46
6	Swansea	24	13	7	4	+16	46
7	Cardiff	30	12	7	11	+9	43
8	Middlesbrough	30	12	7	11	+3	43
9	Stoke	30	10	12	8	+1	42
10	Blackburn	28	11	6	11	+11	39
11	Barnsley	26	11	6	9	+1	39
12	Preston	30	12	3	15	-4	39
13	Bristol City	30	12	3	15	-12	39
14	Millwall	29	8	14	7	+1	38
15	Luton	29	10	7	12	-8	37
16	Derby	29	9	7	13	-9	34
17	Sheffield Weds	29	9	7	13	-10	34
18	Nott'm Forest	29	8	9	12	-5	33
19	QPR	27	8	9	10	-6	33
20	Huddersfield	30	9	6	15	-10	33
21	Coventry	29	7	10	12	-13	31
22	Rotherham	27	8	5	14	-5	29
23	Birmingham	29	6	10	13	-14	28
24	Wycombe	29	4	7	18	-29	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Norwich	15	9	5	1	+12	32
3	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Reading	15	9	0	6	+6	27
5	Swansea	13	7	5	1	+10	26
6	Middlesbrough	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	25
8	Huddersfield	15	7	2	6	+4	23
9	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+4	23
10	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	-1	23
11	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
12	Stoke	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Barnsley	12	6	3	3	+3	21
14	Coventry	14	5	6	3	+0	21
15	Luton	14	5	5	4	+0	20
16	Cardiff	15	5	3	7	+4	18
17	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	+0	18
18	QPR	13	4	4	5	-2	16
19	Derby	15	4	4	7	-7	16
20	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	+0	15
21	Millwall	14	2	9	3	+0	15
22	Preston	15	4	2	9	-5	14
23	Wycombe	15	2	5	8	-10	11
24	Birmingham	15	2	3	10	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	14	8	4	2	+13	28
2	Norwich	14	8	2	4	+3	26
3	Cardiff	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	15	8	1	6	+1	25
5	Reading	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+1	23
7	Swansea	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Stoke	15	4	8	3	+1	20
9	Bournemouth	14	4	7	3	+5	19
10	Birmingham	14	4	7	3	+1	19
11	Watford	15	4	7	4	-1	19
12	Barnsley	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Derby	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Blackburn	14	5	2	7	+5	17
15	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-1	17
16	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
17	Luton	15	5	2	8	-8	17
18	Bristol City	15	5	1	9	-11	16
19	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-5	15
20	Rotherham	13	4	2	7	-5	14
21	Sheffield Weds	15	3	2	10	-14	11
22	Coventry	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-14	10
24	Wycombe	14	2	2	10	-19	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.