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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Nott'm Forest

T S S T T

0–1

Full-time

Swansea

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Championship · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 37%

23%

50%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 16%

15%

17%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

42%

Average goals

1,9

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 8

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 22. · Swansea 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	8	4	2	+7	28
2	Bournemouth	14	7	6	1	+10	27
3	Watford	14	7	5	2	+8	26
4	Reading	14	8	2	4	+5	26
5	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+3	24
6	Brentford	13	6	4	3	+7	22
7	Swansea	12	6	4	2	+7	22
8	Stoke	14	6	4	4	+3	22
9	Blackburn	14	6	3	5	+11	21
10	Middlesbrough	14	5	6	3	+5	21
11	Millwall	14	4	8	2	+2	20
12	Luton	14	5	4	5	-6	19
13	Huddersfield	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Cardiff	14	4	5	5	+4	17
15	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
16	Barnsley	14	4	4	6	-1	16
17	Birmingham	14	3	7	4	-2	16
18	Preston	14	5	1	8	-4	16
19	Sheffield Weds	14	3	5	6	-5	14
20	Rotherham	14	3	4	7	-4	13
21	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-10	13
22	Nott'm Forest	13	3	3	7	-7	12
23	Wycombe	14	2	4	8	-13	10
24	Derby	14	1	4	9	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+7	17
3	Reading	7	5	0	2	+3	15
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	QPR	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Blackburn	7	3	2	2	+5	11
9	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Barnsley	7	3	2	2	+4	11
11	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+0	11
13	Coventry	7	3	2	2	-3	11
14	Huddersfield	7	3	1	3	+0	10
15	Luton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
16	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	+3	8
17	Rotherham	7	2	2	3	+1	8
18	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
19	Millwall	7	1	5	1	-1	8
20	Birmingham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
21	Sheffield Weds	7	1	4	2	-1	7
22	Wycombe	7	1	3	3	-3	6
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-8	3
24	Derby	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Preston	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Bristol City	7	4	1	2	+2	13
4	Millwall	7	3	3	1	+3	12
5	Brentford	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+6	10
9	Bournemouth	7	2	4	1	+3	10
10	Luton	7	3	1	3	-4	10
11	Cardiff	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
13	Birmingham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Middlesbrough	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Watford	7	1	4	2	-1	7
17	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-5	5
19	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	QPR	7	1	2	4	-6	5
22	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	4
23	Wycombe	7	1	1	5	-10	4
24	Coventry	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.