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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Man United

U T U S T

1–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 11. · Arsenal 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+20	16
3	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+8	14
4	West Ham	7	3	3	1	+1	12
5	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Bournemouth	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Crystal Palace	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Burnley	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Man United	6	2	2	2	+2	8
12	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	+0	8
13	Wolves	7	1	4	2	-2	7
14	Southampton	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Everton	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Brighton	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Norwich	7	2	0	5	-7	6
18	Aston Villa	7	1	2	4	-3	5
19	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-9	5
20	Watford	7	0	2	5	-16	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Man City	3	2	1	0	+12	7
6	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	West Ham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
11	Everton	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Southampton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Man City	4	3	0	1	+8	9
3	West Ham	4	1	3	0	+2	6
4	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Southampton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Burnley	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	-8	3
14	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Man United	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Watford	4	0	1	3	-11	1
19	Aston Villa	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.