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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Arsenal

S T S S S

1–3

Full-time

Man United

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 68%

64%

71%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 33%

36%

29%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

75% Possession 25%

33 Shots 8

16 Shots on target 4

11 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 14

12 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Man United 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	1	0	+35	40
2	Man United	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Chelsea	15	10	2	3	+16	32
4	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+14	29
5	Arsenal	14	9	1	4	+12	28
6	Tottenham	15	7	4	4	+10	25
7	Burnley	15	7	4	4	+2	25
8	Watford	15	6	4	5	-1	22
9	Leicester	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Everton	15	5	3	7	-9	18
11	Brighton	15	4	5	6	-5	17
12	Southampton	14	4	4	6	-3	16
13	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-12	16
14	Newcastle	15	4	3	8	-8	15
15	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-17	15
16	Bournemouth	14	4	2	8	-4	14
17	West Brom	15	2	7	6	-9	13
18	Crystal Palace	15	2	4	9	-17	10
19	West Ham	14	2	4	8	-18	10
20	Swansea	15	2	3	10	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Man City	7	6	1	0	+21	19
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
5	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
6	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
7	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
8	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Huddersfield	7	3	2	2	-2	11
12	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
13	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
15	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
16	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
17	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
18	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	+0	7
19	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
4	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
5	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
6	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Man United	7	3	2	2	+5	11
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
14	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
18	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
19	West Ham	8	0	3	5	-14	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.