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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Watford

T T T T U

2–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

52% Possession 48%

31 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 20. · Arsenal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+5	8
4	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
5	Leicester	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Bournemouth	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	West Ham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Everton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-3	7
13	Norwich	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Burnley	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Sheffield United	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Brighton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
19	Wolves	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Watford	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
3	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Man City	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Sheffield United	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Brighton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Wolves	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Watford	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	2	0	1	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Brighton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Tottenham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.