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Premier League

Referee: D England

Leicester

T T S S U

2–4

Full-time

Newcastle

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 41%

56%

26%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

59%

47%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

68% Possession 32%

25 Shots 14

9 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 3. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	34	25	5	4	+47	80
2	Man United	33	19	10	4	+29	67
3	Leicester	34	19	6	9	+22	63
4	Chelsea	34	17	10	7	+22	61
5	West Ham	34	17	7	10	+11	58
6	Tottenham	34	16	8	10	+22	56
7	Liverpool	33	15	9	9	+16	54
8	Everton	33	15	7	11	+3	52
9	Arsenal	34	14	7	13	+9	49
10	Aston Villa	33	14	6	13	+10	48
11	Leeds	34	14	5	15	-2	47
12	Wolves	34	11	9	14	-13	42
13	Crystal Palace	33	10	8	15	-22	38
14	Brighton	34	8	13	13	-4	37
15	Southampton	33	10	7	16	-18	37
16	Burnley	34	9	9	16	-16	36
17	Newcastle	34	9	9	16	-20	36
18	Fulham	34	5	12	17	-20	27
19	West Brom	34	5	11	18	-34	26
20	Sheffield United	34	5	2	27	-42	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	2	3	+22	38
2	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+13	30
6	Leicester	17	9	1	7	+8	28
7	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+5	27
8	Leeds	17	6	5	6	+3	23
9	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Southampton	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Newcastle	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	-21	15
19	Sheffield United	17	4	1	12	-14	13
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	17	10	7	0	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Everton	16	10	3	3	+7	33
5	Chelsea	17	9	4	4	+9	31
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Arsenal	17	8	3	6	+10	27
8	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-3	20
13	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-9	20
14	Burnley	17	5	3	9	-10	18
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-11	18
16	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
17	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Southampton	17	4	4	9	-19	16
19	West Brom	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Sheffield United	17	1	1	15	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.