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Premier League
Referee: A Taylor
Burnley
T U U S T
1–2
Full-time
Newcastle
U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 25%
27%
23%
Points per game
1,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
33%
47%
Both score Ø 45%
37%
53%
Average goals
2,1
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
24 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
13 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 15. · Newcastle 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 32 23 5 4 +44 74
2 Man United 30 17 9 4 +25 60
3 Leicester 30 17 5 8 +19 56
4 Chelsea 31 15 9 7 +19 54
5 Liverpool 31 15 7 9 +16 52
6 West Ham 30 15 7 8 +11 52
7 Tottenham 30 14 7 9 +19 49
8 Everton 29 14 5 10 +3 47
9 Leeds 31 14 3 14 +0 45
10 Aston Villa 30 13 5 12 +10 44
11 Arsenal 30 12 6 12 +5 42
12 Wolves 31 10 8 13 -10 38
13 Crystal Palace 31 10 8 13 -19 38
14 Southampton 30 10 6 14 -14 36
15 Burnley 30 8 9 13 -16 33
16 Brighton 30 7 11 12 -5 32
17 Newcastle 30 7 8 15 -20 29
18 Fulham 32 5 11 16 -18 26
19 West Brom 30 4 9 17 -34 21
20 Sheffield United 30 4 2 24 -35 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Newcastle
1–0 M. Vydra
C. Wood
18′
38′
ℹ️ Sean Longstaff
VAR: Goal cancelled
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 A. Saint-Maximin
↦ Joelinton
57′
🔁 C. Wilson
↦ D. Gayle
59′
J. Murphy 1–1
A. Saint-Maximin
64′
A. Saint-Maximin 1–2
J. Shelvey
Josh Brownhill 🟨
70′
J. Mumbongo 🔁
↦ J. Guðmunds­son
91′
93′
🔁 J. Hendrick
↦ M. Almirón
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-2
15 B. Peacock-Farrell G
23 E. Pieters D
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
7 J. Guðmunds­son M
18 A. Westwood M
8 J. Brownhill M
27 M. Vydra F
9 C. Wood F
11 D. McNeil M
Bench (9)
46 J. Mumbongo
26 P. Bardsley
4 J. Cork
34 J. Dunne
31 R. Nartey
16 D. Stephens
25 W. Norris
3 C. Taylor
38 L. Richardson

Coach: S. Dyche

Newcastle

5-3-2
1 M. Dúbravka G
18 F. Fernández D
2 C. Clark D
3 P. Dummett D
8 J. Shelvey M
11 M. Ritchie D
24 M. Almirón M
23 J. Murphy D
36 S. Longstaff M
12 D. Gayle F
9 Joelinton F
Bench (9)
10 A. Saint-Maximin
13 C. Wilson
16 J. Hendrick
15 J. Lewis
17 E. Krafth
19 Javi Manquillo
7 A. Carroll
26 K. Darlow
28 J. Willock

Coach: S. Bruce

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,34
U
3,12
B ✓
3,39
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,39
U2,5
1,59
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.