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2. Bundesliga

Erzgebirge Aue

U S T S U

4–3

Full-time

Nurnberg

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

9 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 5

2 Corners 5

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Erzgebirge Aue 4. · Nurnberg 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Stuttgart	9	6	2	1	+6	20
3	Bielefeld	9	5	3	1	+9	18
4	Erzgebirge Aue	9	4	3	2	+1	15
5	St Pauli	9	3	4	2	+2	13
6	Nurnberg	9	3	4	2	+1	13
7	Heidenheim	9	3	3	3	+2	12
8	Sandhausen	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Karlsruhe	9	3	3	3	-2	12
10	Regensburg	9	3	2	4	+3	11
11	Hannover	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Greuther Furth	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Osnabruck	9	3	1	5	+1	10
14	Dresden	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Bochum	9	1	5	3	-3	8
16	Holstein Kiel	9	2	2	5	-4	8
17	Darmstadt	9	1	5	3	-4	8
18	Wehen	9	2	1	6	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	5	4	1	0	+10	13
2	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Erzgebirge Aue	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	St Pauli	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Sandhausen	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Osnabruck	5	2	1	2	+4	7
7	Karlsruhe	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Heidenheim	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Dresden	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Darmstadt	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Nurnberg	5	1	3	1	-3	6
12	Greuther Furth	4	2	0	2	-3	6
13	Bielefeld	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Holstein Kiel	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Bochum	4	0	4	0	+0	4
16	Regensburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Wehen	5	1	0	4	-10	3
18	Hannover	4	0	2	2	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Hannover	5	3	0	2	+2	9
3	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Nurnberg	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Hamburg	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Regensburg	5	2	1	2	+4	7
7	Heidenheim	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Greuther Furth	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Karlsruhe	5	1	2	2	-3	5
10	Erzgebirge Aue	5	1	2	2	-4	5
11	Wehen	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	St Pauli	5	0	4	1	-1	4
13	Sandhausen	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Bochum	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Holstein Kiel	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Osnabruck	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Dresden	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Darmstadt	5	0	2	3	-6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.