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2. Bundesliga

Hamburg

S S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

9 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

5 Corners 3

6 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 3. · Erzgebirge Aue 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	7	5	2	0	+6	17
2	Bielefeld	7	4	3	0	+9	15
3	Hamburg	6	4	1	1	+8	13
4	Heidenheim	7	3	2	2	+3	11
5	Sandhausen	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Erzgebirge Aue	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Greuther Furth	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Karlsruhe	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Osnabruck	6	3	0	3	+4	9
10	Nurnberg	7	2	3	2	-3	9
11	St Pauli	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Hannover	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Regensburg	6	2	1	3	+3	7
14	Dresden	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Darmstadt	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Holstein Kiel	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Bochum	7	0	4	3	-4	4
18	Wehen	7	0	1	6	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Hamburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Heidenheim	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Erzgebirge Aue	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Sandhausen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Osnabruck	3	2	0	1	+5	6
7	Karlsruhe	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	St Pauli	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Greuther Furth	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Bielefeld	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Holstein Kiel	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Nurnberg	4	1	2	1	-3	5
14	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Bochum	3	0	3	0	+0	3
16	Regensburg	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Hannover	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Wehen	4	0	0	4	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Hamburg	3	2	0	1	+4	6
3	Hannover	4	2	0	2	+0	6
4	Stuttgart	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Greuther Furth	4	1	2	1	+0	5
6	Regensburg	3	1	1	1	+4	4
7	Heidenheim	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Sandhausen	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Erzgebirge Aue	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Karlsruhe	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	St Pauli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Dresden	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Wehen	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bochum	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Darmstadt	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.