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2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

12 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 6

6 Corners 8

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 16. · Erzgebirge Aue 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Sandhausen	5	3	1	1	+3	10
3	Bielefeld	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Greuther Furth	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Regensburg	5	2	1	2	+4	7
7	Erzgebirge Aue	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Nurnberg	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Osnabruck	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Karlsruhe	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Hannover	4	1	2	1	+2	5
12	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	St Pauli	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Dresden	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Darmstadt	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Holstein Kiel	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Bochum	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Wehen	5	0	1	4	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Sandhausen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
3	Bielefeld	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Holstein Kiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Erzgebirge Aue	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	-3	4
10	Osnabruck	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Regensburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Hannover	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Wehen	3	0	0	3	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Greuther Furth	3	1	2	0	+2	5
3	Regensburg	3	1	1	1	+4	4
4	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Sandhausen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Heidenheim	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Hannover	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Erzgebirge Aue	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Osnabruck	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Stuttgart	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	St Pauli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Wehen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Dresden	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.