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2. Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

U U S U T

4–0

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Werder Bremen Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

33%

20%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

67%

47%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

15 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

6 Corners 2

14 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Werder Bremen 10. · Erzgebirge Aue 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	15	10	2	3	+16	32
2	Darmstadt	15	9	2	4	+20	29
3	Regensburg	15	8	4	3	+13	28
4	Paderborn	15	7	5	3	+12	26
5	Hamburg	15	6	8	1	+11	26
6	Schalke 04	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Nurnberg	15	6	6	3	+6	24
8	Heidenheim	15	7	3	5	-4	24
9	Karlsruhe	15	5	6	4	+4	21
10	Werder Bremen	15	5	5	5	-1	20
11	Hansa Rostock	15	5	3	7	-7	18
12	Holstein Kiel	15	4	5	6	-9	17
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	Dresden	15	5	1	9	-5	16
15	Erzgebirge Aue	15	3	5	7	-8	14
16	Hannover	15	3	5	7	-12	14
17	Sandhausen	15	3	3	9	-17	12
18	Ingolstadt	15	1	3	11	-25	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	7	7	0	0	+18	21
2	Darmstadt	7	6	0	1	+17	18
3	Regensburg	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Heidenheim	8	4	3	1	+2	15
5	Hamburg	8	3	5	0	+7	14
6	Nurnberg	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Schalke 04	8	4	1	3	+6	13
8	Karlsruhe	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Dresden	7	4	0	3	+4	12
10	Holstein Kiel	8	3	1	4	-6	10
11	Werder Bremen	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Paderborn	8	2	3	3	+0	9
13	Hannover	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Erzgebirge Aue	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Hansa Rostock	7	2	1	4	-5	7
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Ingolstadt	7	0	3	4	-8	3
18	Sandhausen	7	0	2	5	-12	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Schalke 04	7	4	1	2	+3	13
3	Hamburg	7	3	3	1	+4	12
4	Darmstadt	8	3	2	3	+3	11
5	Regensburg	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	St Pauli	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Hansa Rostock	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Nurnberg	7	2	4	1	+0	10
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	1	4	-2	10
11	Sandhausen	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Karlsruhe	7	2	3	2	+0	9
13	Heidenheim	7	3	0	4	-6	9
14	Holstein Kiel	7	1	4	2	-3	7
15	Erzgebirge Aue	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Hannover	8	1	3	4	-9	6
17	Dresden	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Ingolstadt	8	1	0	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.