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2. Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Dresden

U S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Hertha

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,5

Scored

2,3

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 35%

26%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

78%

52%

Both score Ø 63%

78%

48%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,91 xG 0,91

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Dresden 14. · Hertha 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	27	15	7	5	+14	+10.9	52
2	Elversberg	27	15	6	6	+18	+5.8	51
3	Paderborn	27	15	6	6	+14	+12.9	51
4	Darmstadt	28	13	11	4	+18	+4.7	50
5	Hannover	27	14	7	6	+12	+13.4	49
6	Hertha	27	12	8	7	+9	-3.5	44
7	Kaiserslautern	28	13	4	11	+7	+0.0	43
8	Karlsruhe	27	10	7	10	-8	-16.5	37
9	Nurnberg	27	10	6	11	+0	+0.0	36
10	Bochum	28	8	9	11	-1	+3.6	33
11	Bielefeld	28	8	7	13	+1	+1.1	31
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	28	9	4	15	-17	-4.8	31
13	Magdeburg	28	9	3	16	-8	+8.1	30
14	Dresden	27	7	8	12	-1	-0.5	29
15	Braunschweig	27	8	5	14	-15	-0.3	29
16	Greuther Furth	27	8	5	14	-19	-10.9	29
17	Holstein Kiel	27	7	7	13	-8	-11.0	28
18	Preußen Münster	27	6	8	13	-16	-13.2	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	14	10	4	0	+19	+8.9	34
2	Kaiserslautern	15	10	1	4	+16	+4.8	31
3	Schalke 04	13	9	3	1	+9	+4.7	30
4	Paderborn	14	9	2	3	+8	+10.6	29
5	Elversberg	13	8	4	1	+12	+4.7	28
6	Nurnberg	14	7	4	3	+8	+2.5	25
7	Karlsruhe	13	7	3	3	+4	-4.2	24
8	Hannover	13	7	2	4	+4	+9.4	23
9	Bochum	14	6	4	4	+5	+8.8	22
10	Bielefeld	14	6	3	5	+8	+12.2	21
11	Hertha	14	5	5	4	-1	-1.1	20
12	Braunschweig	14	5	3	6	-7	+4.0	18
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	5	3	6	-7	-0.9	18
14	Greuther Furth	13	4	4	5	-7	-5.3	16
15	Dresden	13	4	3	6	+5	+6.0	15
16	Holstein Kiel	13	4	3	6	+0	-0.7	15
17	Preußen Münster	14	3	6	5	-3	-4.2	15
18	Magdeburg	14	3	2	9	-7	+7.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	14	7	5	2	+8	+4.0	26
2	Hertha	13	7	3	3	+10	-2.5	24
3	Elversberg	14	7	2	5	+6	+1.2	23
4	Paderborn	13	6	4	3	+6	+2.3	22
5	Schalke 04	14	6	4	4	+5	+6.2	22
6	Magdeburg	14	6	1	7	-1	+1.0	19
7	Darmstadt	14	3	7	4	-1	-4.2	16
8	Dresden	14	3	5	6	-6	-6.5	14
9	Holstein Kiel	14	3	4	7	-8	-10.3	13
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	1	9	-10	-4.0	13
11	Greuther Furth	14	4	1	9	-12	-5.6	13
12	Karlsruhe	14	3	4	7	-12	-12.3	13
13	Kaiserslautern	13	3	3	7	-9	-4.7	12
14	Bochum	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.2	11
15	Nurnberg	13	3	2	8	-8	-2.5	11
16	Braunschweig	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.3	11
17	Preußen Münster	13	3	2	8	-13	-9.0	11
18	Bielefeld	14	2	4	8	-7	-11.1	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.