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Ligue 2
Referee: P Gaillouste
Guingamp
T U T T S
1–0
Full-time
Montpellier
T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guingamp Montpellier
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,7
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 2 · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
25%
25%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
3,8
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
11 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guingamp 16. · Montpellier 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 St Etienne 5 3 2 0 +6 11
2 Red Star 5 3 1 1 +6 10
3 Troyes 5 3 1 1 +3 10
4 Pau FC 5 2 2 1 +1 8
5 Nancy 5 2 2 1 +0 8
6 Reims 5 2 2 1 +0 8
7 Rodez 5 2 2 1 -2 8
8 Laval 5 1 4 0 +1 7
9 Amiens 5 1 3 1 +1 6
10 Clermont 5 1 3 1 +0 6
11 Montpellier 4 1 2 1 +0 5
12 Dunkerque 5 1 2 2 -1 5
13 Grenoble 5 1 2 2 -1 5
14 Annecy 5 1 2 2 -2 5
15 Le Mans 5 1 1 3 -2 4
16 Guingamp 4 1 1 2 -3 4
17 Bastia 4 0 2 2 -3 2
18 Boulogne 4 0 0 4 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guingamp Montpellier
18′
🟨 Lucas Mincarelli Davin
1–0 D. Gomis
E. Koffi
28′
Darly Nlandu 🟨
35′
Half-time 1–0
D. Ourega 🔁
↦ A. Abdallah
64′
K. Sidibe 🔁
↦ D. N'Landu
64′
F. Mbemba 🔁
↦ G. Ott
64′
67′
🔁 T. Chennahi
↦ Y. Mouanga
67′
🔁 T. Savanier
↦ L. Mincarelli
A. Sissoko 🔁
↦ J. Hatchi
73′
80′
🔁 I. Mohamed
↦ N. El Hannach
80′
🔁 N. Pays
↦ N. Mbuku
S. Kielt 🔁
↦ L. Mafouta
82′
84′
🟨 Nicolas Pays
94′
🟨 Victor Orakpo
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Guingamp

4-4-2
1 T. Bartouche-Selbonne G
2 E. Koffi D
7 D. Gomis D
36 A. Demouchy D
29 A. Abdallah D
20 J. Hatchi M
4 D. Louiserre M
6 D. N'Landu M
24 G. Ott M
10 A. Hemia F
9 L. Mafouta F
Bench (7)
40 N. Marec
22 A. Sissoko
23 D. Ourega
8 K. Sidibe
39 T. Ahile
21 F. Mbemba
27 S. Kielt

Coach: Sylvain Ripoll

Montpellier

3-4-3
31 S. Ngapandouetnbu G
15 J. Laporte D
6 C. Jullien D
21 L. Mincarelli D
3 N. El Hannach M
27 B. Omeragic M
23 Y. Mouanga M
17 T. Sainte-Luce M
7 N. Mbuku F
19 A. Mendy F
14 V. Orakpo F
Bench (7)
50 V. Dzodic
33 I. Mohamed
44 T. Chennahi
77 E. Junior Pereira da Silva
11 T. Savanier
24 J. Ndiaye
18 N. Pays

Coach: Zoumana Camara

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,39
U
3,27
B
2,75
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,95
U2,5 ✓
1,77
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

P Gaillouste · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.