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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Tottenham

T U S U S

1–0

Full-time

Burnley

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tottenham Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 38%

56%

20%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

37%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

46%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%

21 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tottenham 5. · Burnley 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	36	28	5	3	+72	89
2	Liverpool	36	26	8	2	+65	86
3	Chelsea	36	20	10	6	+42	70
4	Arsenal	36	21	3	12	+11	66
5	Tottenham	36	20	5	11	+23	65
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	Wolves	36	15	5	16	-3	50
9	Brighton	36	11	14	11	-4	47
10	Leicester	35	12	9	14	-4	45
11	Crystal Palace	35	10	14	11	+4	44
12	Aston Villa	35	13	4	18	-1	43
13	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-8	43
14	Newcastle	36	11	10	15	-21	43
15	Southampton	36	9	13	14	-20	40
16	Everton	35	10	6	19	-19	36
17	Burnley	35	7	13	15	-17	34
18	Leeds	36	8	10	18	-38	34
19	Watford	36	6	5	25	-38	23
20	Norwich	36	5	6	25	-56	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	18	14	2	2	+42	44
3	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
4	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+18	37
5	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	Leicester	18	9	4	5	+8	31
7	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
8	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
11	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
12	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	18	7	2	9	-5	23
15	Aston Villa	17	6	3	8	+0	21
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	18	2	2	14	-25	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+28	40
3	Liverpool	18	12	4	2	+27	40
4	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
5	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
6	Arsenal	18	9	1	8	-3	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
14	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-18	16
15	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Everton	18	2	4	12	-21	10
20	Norwich	18	2	3	13	-30	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.