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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Middlesbrough

S T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Championship · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 24%

20%

27%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

60%

27%

Both score Ø 58%

70%

45%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 22. · Birmingham 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	12	7	3	2	+13	24
2	Norwich	12	7	3	2	+8	24
3	Reading	12	7	1	4	-2	22
4	QPR	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Burnley	11	4	6	1	+7	18
6	Blackburn	12	6	0	6	-2	18
7	Sunderland	12	4	5	3	+5	17
8	Watford	11	4	5	2	+4	17
9	Luton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
10	Wigan	10	4	4	2	+0	16
11	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	+2	15
12	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-1	15
13	Cardiff	12	4	3	5	-3	15
14	Rotherham	10	3	5	2	+4	14
15	Preston	11	2	7	2	-1	13
16	Birmingham	11	3	4	4	-2	13
17	Millwall	11	4	1	6	-4	13
18	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-4	12
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-6	12
20	Hull	11	3	2	6	-12	11
21	West Brom	11	1	7	3	+0	10
22	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-2	10
23	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-6	8
24	Coventry	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	7	5	1	1	+5	16
2	Norwich	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Sheffield United	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Blackburn	6	4	0	2	+3	12
5	Millwall	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Rotherham	6	3	2	1	+7	11
7	Cardiff	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+4	10
9	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	10
10	Burnley	5	2	3	0	+3	9
11	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Hull	6	3	0	3	-4	9
13	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Sunderland	6	1	4	1	+2	7
15	Luton	7	1	4	2	+0	7
16	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	+0	7
17	Swansea	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	West Brom	6	1	3	2	+1	6
19	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-1	5
20	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-3	5
21	Blackpool	5	1	1	3	-2	4
22	Preston	6	0	4	2	-3	4
23	Wigan	5	0	3	2	-5	3
24	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wigan	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	QPR	7	4	1	2	+3	13
3	Sheffield United	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sunderland	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Luton	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Norwich	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+4	9
8	Preston	5	2	3	0	+2	9
9	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Birmingham	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Blackpool	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Watford	6	1	4	1	+2	7
13	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Blackburn	6	2	0	4	-5	6
15	Reading	5	2	0	3	-7	6
16	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	West Brom	5	0	4	1	-1	4
18	Coventry	7	0	4	3	-5	4
19	Cardiff	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Rotherham	4	0	3	1	-3	3
21	Hull	5	0	2	3	-8	2
22	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
23	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-6	1
24	Millwall	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.