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Championship
Referee: S Martin
Birmingham
T S S T T
1–4
Full-time
Middlesbrough
S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Middlesbrough
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,0
This season — Championship · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 34%
26%
42%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 35%
37%
32%
Both score Ø 43%
53%
32%
Average goals
1,8
1,8
Scored
0,8
1,1
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

53% Possession 47%
9 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Birmingham 17. · Middlesbrough 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Norwich 20 13 4 3 +11 43
2 Bournemouth 19 10 7 2 +19 37
3 Watford 19 9 7 3 +10 34
4 Reading 19 10 3 6 +6 33
5 Swansea 18 9 5 4 +9 32
6 Brentford 18 8 7 3 +11 31
7 Middlesbrough 19 8 6 5 +6 30
8 Stoke 19 8 6 5 +4 30
9 Bristol City 20 9 3 8 -1 30
10 Cardiff 20 8 5 7 +6 29
11 Blackburn 19 8 4 7 +11 28
12 Barnsley 19 8 4 7 -1 28
13 Preston 20 8 2 10 -3 26
14 Luton 19 7 5 7 -4 26
15 Huddersfield 19 7 4 8 -5 25
16 Millwall 19 5 9 5 -1 24
17 Birmingham 19 5 7 7 -3 22
18 Coventry 19 5 7 7 -7 22
19 QPR 19 4 7 8 -8 19
20 Rotherham 19 4 4 11 -9 16
21 Nott'm Forest 19 4 4 11 -11 16
22 Derby 19 3 7 9 -12 16
23 Sheffield Weds 19 3 6 10 -11 15
24 Wycombe 19 2 5 12 -17 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Birmingham Middlesbrough
1–0 M. Colin
15′
27′
B. Assombalonga 1–1
M. Bola
31′
G. Saville 1–2
M. Johnson
Half-time 1–2
M. Kieftenbeld 🔁
↦ San José
46′
I. Šunjić 🔁
↦ A. Clayton
46′
56′
L. Wing 1–3
J. Leko 🔁
↦ Iván Sánchez
60′
L. Jutkiewicz 🔁
↦ Jon Toral
60′
G. Gardner 🔁
↦ Jérémie Bela
61′
75′
🔁 D. Spence
↦ M. Johnson
82′
L. Wing 1–4
M. Tavernier
83′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ B. Assombalonga
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1
30 N. Etheridge G
12 H. Dean D
2 M. Colin D
4 M. Roberts D
3 K. Pedersen D
19 San José M
8 A. Clayton M
17 Iván Sánchez M
11 Jérémie Bela M
23 Jon Toral M
9 S. Hogan F
Bench (9)
6 M. Kieftenbeld
34 I. Šunjić
14 J. Leko
10 L. Jutkiewicz
20 G. Gardner
1 Andrés Prieto
25 J. Cogley
15 J. Clarke-Salter
35 A. Halilović

Coach: Karanka

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1
1 M. Bettinelli G
27 M. Bola D
7 M. Tavernier M
2 A. Dijksteel D
3 M. Johnson M
5 Sam Morsy M
17 P. McNair D
22 G. Saville M
6 D. Fry D
8 L. Wing M
9 B. Assombalonga F
Bench (9)
29 D. Spence
10 C. Akpom
18 D. Watmore
32 D. Stojanovic
37 I. Jones
33 H. Coulson
15 N. Wood-Gordon
31 S. Brynn
24 S. Folarin

Coach: N. Warnock

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,26
U
3,07
B ✓
2,37
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,53
U2,5
1,52
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Martin · 160 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.