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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Chelsea
T S T U S
3–0
Full-time
Milan
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
83%
100%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
1,5
3,0
Scored
0,5
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%
10 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Chelsea Milan
8′
🟨 Rade Krunić
15′
🟨 Fodé Ballo-Touré
1–0 W. Fofana ⚽
R. Loftus-Cheek
24′
T. Chalobah 🔁
↦ W. Fofana
38′
Mateo Kovačić 🟨
39′
42′
🟨 Fikayo Tomori
Half-time 2–0
2–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
R. James
56′
3–0 R. James ⚽
R. Sterling
62′
64′
🔁 A. Rebić
↦ C. De Ketelaere
C. Gallagher 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
65′
65′
🔁 M. Gabbia
↦ R. Krunić
Jorginho 🔁
↦ M. Kovačić
66′
Thiago Silva 🟨
71′
72′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Rafael Leão
73′
🔁 D. Origi
↦ O. Giroud
73′
🔁 T. Pobega
↦ I. Bennacer
K. Havertz 🔁
↦ M. Mount
74′
A. Broja 🔁
↦ R. Sterling
75′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Chelsea

3-4-2-1
1 Kepa G
33 W. Fofana D
6 Thiago Silva D
26 K. Koulibaly D
24 R. James M
12 R. Loftus-Cheek M
8 M. Kovačić M
21 B. Chilwell M
17 R. Sterling F
19 M. Mount F
9 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (12)
14 T. Chalobah
23 C. Gallagher
5 Jorginho
29 K. Havertz
18 A. Broja
28 César Azpilicueta
13 M. Bettinelli
16 É. Mendy
20 D. Zakaria
22 H. Ziyech
32 Marc Cucurella
10 C. Pulišić

Coach: G. Potter

Milan

4-2-3-1
1 C. Tătărușanu G
21 S. Dest D
20 P. Kalulu D
23 F. Tomori D
5 F. Ballo D
4 I. Bennacer M
8 S. Tonali M
33 R. Krunić M
90 C. De Ketelaere M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (9)
12 A. Rebić
46 M. Gabbia
10 Brahim Díaz
27 D. Origi
32 T. Pobega
96 A. Jungdal
88 A. Gala
83 A. Mirante
93 A. Coubiș

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.