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Allsvenskan

Referee: Oscar Johnson

Elfsborg

T S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Varnamo

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elfsborg Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 34%

61%

Points per game

1,9

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

44%

61%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,20 xG 0,69

54% Possession 46%

22 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elfsborg 3. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	19	14	4	1	+23	+2.5	46
2	Hammarby	19	13	3	3	+20	+12.8	42
3	Elfsborg	18	11	2	5	+10	+1.7	35
4	AIK	19	9	7	3	+8	+4.6	34
5	Malmo FF	19	9	6	4	+12	+11.6	33
6	GAIS	18	8	8	2	+14	+8.1	32
7	Goteborg	18	9	1	8	+1	+3.5	28
8	Djurgarden	19	7	6	6	+3	+4.2	27
9	Brommapojkarna	19	7	2	10	+0	-0.7	23
10	Hacken	19	6	5	8	-7	+2.2	23
11	Norrkoping	19	5	4	10	-8	-10.6	19
12	Halmstad	19	5	3	11	-21	-13.1	18
13	Sirius	19	4	5	10	-7	-2.7	17
14	Oster	19	3	6	10	-11	-10.6	15
15	Degerfors	19	4	3	12	-21	-3.7	15
16	Varnamo	18	1	5	12	-16	-9.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.8	25
2	Mjallby	9	7	2	0	+12	+4.9	23
3	AIK	9	5	4	0	+10	+4.6	19
4	Elfsborg	9	6	1	2	+7	+0.3	19
5	Malmo FF	9	5	2	2	+8	+8.5	17
6	GAIS	8	4	3	1	+6	+4.8	15
7	Djurgarden	10	3	5	2	+3	+5.2	14
8	Goteborg	9	4	1	4	+3	+3.1	13
9	Halmstad	10	4	1	5	-7	-3.9	13
10	Hacken	10	3	2	5	-5	+4.0	11
11	Norrkoping	10	3	1	6	-4	-1.8	10
12	Brommapojkarna	9	3	0	6	-3	+0.2	9
13	Sirius	9	2	2	5	-3	+1.0	8
14	Varnamo	10	1	4	5	-5	-5.3	7
15	Oster	9	1	3	5	-6	-4.3	6
16	Degerfors	10	1	3	6	-12	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	10	7	2	1	+11	-2.3	23
2	GAIS	10	4	5	1	+8	+3.3	17
3	Hammarby	9	5	2	2	+7	+2.0	17
4	Malmo FF	10	4	4	2	+4	+3.1	16
5	Elfsborg	9	5	1	3	+3	+1.4	16
6	Goteborg	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.4	15
7	AIK	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.1	15
8	Brommapojkarna	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.9	14
9	Djurgarden	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.1	13
10	Hacken	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.8	12
11	Norrkoping	9	2	3	4	-4	-8.9	9
12	Sirius	10	2	3	5	-4	-3.7	9
13	Oster	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.3	9
14	Degerfors	9	3	0	6	-9	-3.3	9
15	Halmstad	9	1	2	6	-14	-9.2	5
16	Varnamo	8	0	1	7	-11	-4.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.