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Ekstraklasa

Referee: S Marciniak

Stal Mielec

U T T S U

0–0

Full-time

Pogon Szczecin

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Pogon Szczecin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

34%

47%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,38 xG 2,68

40% Possession 60%

6 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 11. · Pogon Szczecin 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	32	17	8	7	+29	+15.4	59
2	Slask Wroclaw	32	16	9	7	+16	+7.0	57
3	Legia	32	14	11	7	+10	+9.8	53
4	Rakow	32	14	10	8	+18	+22.5	52
5	Lech Poznan	32	14	10	8	+7	-6.2	52
6	Gornik Zabrze	32	15	7	10	+5	-7.1	52
7	Pogon Szczecin	32	15	6	11	+20	+12.9	51
8	Zaglebie	32	12	8	12	-7	+2.1	44
9	Piast Gliwice	32	9	15	8	+4	+16.2	42
10	Widzew Lodz	32	12	6	14	-3	-2.7	42
11	Stal Mielec	32	11	9	12	-5	-14.3	42
12	Radomiak Radom	32	10	8	14	-13	-3.5	38
13	Warta Poznan	32	9	10	13	-6	-10.9	37
14	Cracovia	32	7	15	10	-1	-1.3	36
15	Puszcza	32	8	12	12	-11	-14.2	36
16	Korona Kielce	32	6	14	12	-7	-1.2	32
17	Ruch Chorzow	32	5	14	13	-15	-6.8	29
18	LKS Lodz	32	5	6	21	-41	-17.6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	16	11	3	2	+27	+14.5	36
2	Rakow	16	10	5	1	+23	+15.0	35
3	Lech Poznan	16	9	4	3	+14	+1.0	31
4	Gornik Zabrze	16	9	4	3	+9	-2.9	31
5	Stal Mielec	16	8	5	3	+8	-2.7	29
6	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	4	4	+11	+10.6	28
7	Piast Gliwice	16	7	6	3	+10	+15.2	27
8	Legia	16	7	6	3	+8	+8.5	27
9	Widzew Lodz	16	9	0	7	+0	+4.3	27
10	Pogon Szczecin	16	8	2	6	+9	+15.9	26
11	Puszcza	16	6	8	2	+2	-0.2	26
12	Korona Kielce	16	5	8	3	+6	+9.1	23
13	Zaglebie	16	6	5	5	+0	+1.3	23
14	Warta Poznan	16	5	5	6	+0	-2.7	20
15	Cracovia	16	4	7	5	+5	+1.8	19
16	Radomiak Radom	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.0	17
17	LKS Lodz	16	4	5	7	-11	-8.7	17
18	Ruch Chorzow	16	3	7	6	-3	+2.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	5	3	+5	-3.6	29
2	Legia	16	7	5	4	+2	+1.2	26
3	Pogon Szczecin	16	7	4	5	+11	-2.9	25
4	Jagiellonia	16	6	5	5	+2	+0.9	23
5	Gornik Zabrze	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.3	21
6	Zaglebie	16	6	3	7	-7	+0.8	21
7	Radomiak Radom	16	6	3	7	-7	-5.5	21
8	Lech Poznan	16	5	6	5	-7	-7.2	21
9	Rakow	16	4	5	7	-5	+7.4	17
10	Warta Poznan	16	4	5	7	-6	-8.3	17
11	Cracovia	16	3	8	5	-6	-3.1	17
12	Widzew Lodz	16	3	6	7	-3	-7.0	15
13	Piast Gliwice	16	2	9	5	-6	+1.0	15
14	Ruch Chorzow	16	2	7	7	-12	-9.3	13
15	Stal Mielec	16	3	4	9	-13	-11.6	13
16	Puszcza	16	2	4	10	-13	-14.0	10
17	Korona Kielce	16	1	6	9	-13	-10.2	9
18	LKS Lodz	16	1	1	14	-30	-8.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.